| ZONE | PHASE 1 - FIRST 72 HOURS | PHASE 2 - WEEKS 1-3 | PHASE 3 - MONTHS 1-3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tier-2/3 Specialty-Alloys Supplier Node (flagged SPV cluster) | Strategic Acquirer (concealed via allied-jurisdiction SPV) confidence 70 First 72h: sub-threshold stake placed cleanly in ~44/50 iterations; registry footprint created but unattributed. Contested by Private Diligence Layer's day-one forensi... | CONTESTED: Strategic Acquirer vs Private Diligence Layer / CFIUS RFI confidence 45 Week 1-3: timing-correlation methodology flags the node in ~40/50 iterations; CFIUS non-notified RFI opens. Concealment holds structurally but position now inside acti... | CONTESTED / mostly ceded to detection apparatus confidence 55 Month 1-3: detection bit at vehicle/Target layer in ~34/50; concealment held at ultimate-beneficial-owner layer. Zero enforcement consequence in iterations 46/47/48. |
| 2 Allied-Jurisdiction Formation-Agent Corridor (UK Crown deps / Channel Islands / Ireland) | Concealment Layer (formation agents/nominees) confidence 75 First 72h: nominee substitution and re-domiciliation staged; enablers hedging under criminal-referral exposure in most iterations. | CONTESTED: Concealment Layer vs Exposure Layer registry-diffing confidence 40 Week 1-3: jurisdiction-hop and churn signatures catalogued publicly (Exposure 'Playbook 2.0'); the very jurisdictions chosen sit inside the scraped seam. | CONTESTED / enabler defection risk confidence 45 Month 1-3: formation-agent/administrator whistleblower flips, e.g. iterations 2/17/49; CFIUS preservation demands foreclose NDA control over disclosure. |
| 3 Second/Third-Jurisdiction Redeploy Node (non-reciprocal registry) | not yet contested | Strategic Acquirer / Concealment Layer (fresh vehicle) confidence 60 Week 1-3: jurisdiction rotation to weaker-disclosure venue; concealment survives contact in iteration 3 across all rounds (strongest concealment-wins case). | CONTESTED: concealment vs pre-published Exposure typology confidence 35 Month 1-3: redeploy vehicle 'born inside detection frame' in ~30/50; but genuinely undocumented vehicles evaded scan entirely (iterations 3, 27, 45). |
| 4 Gulf/Singapore-UAE Sovereign-Co-Investment SPV | Strategic Acquirer (Gulf-fronted SPV) confidence 65 First 72h: registry lag in Gulf jurisdictions delayed detection by one update cycle (iteration 38 'closest near-miss'). | CONTESTED: SPV vs CFIUS compulsory RFI confidence 40 Week 1-3: ultimate-parent disclosure demands + Private Diligence trustee-trace link to shared formation agents. | CFIUS interim governance freeze (survives TRO) confidence 60 Month 1-3: CFIUS governance/voting-rights freeze held against TRO on national-security deference (iteration 38). |
| 5 Non-Equity / Commercial-Dependency Control Layer (offtake, licensing, total-return swap) | not yet contested | Strategic Acquirer / Concealment Layer (synthetic instruments) confidence 70 Week 1-3: migration from equity to covenant/offtake/technical-services control. In iteration 29/50 this SURVIVED the formal FOCI regime entirely. | CONTESTED: concealment vs FOCI-definition expansion confidence 50 Month 1-3: total-return-swap then insurance/reinsurance wrapper (iteration 50) relocated outside beneficial-ownership definitions - the single genuine structural gap;... |
| 6 HieFo Divestiture Precedent Zone (CFIUS enforcement anchor) | CFIUS (FIRRMA/Section 721 statutory authority) confidence 85 First 72h: HieFo divestment order cited as deterrent anchor in nearly all iterations; Legal Challenge Layer's stay motions denied on national-security deference. | CFIUS (un-enjoinable statutory spine) confidence 88 Week 1-3: Legal Challenge Layer repeatedly DECLINED to challenge CFIUS statutory authority, targeting DCSA guidance instead (iterations 26/37/48). | CFIUS (binding NSA / preliminary FOCI determination / DOJ referral) confidence 80 Month 1-3: first criminal-adjacent DOJ false-statement referrals in iterations 16/26; 12/50 reached CRITICAL. Successor-buyer doctrine drew ultra vires challenge (iter... |
| 7 DCSA Intake / SF-328 Guidance Zone (litigation-exposed) | DCSA (interim advisory, contested) confidence 55 First 72h: interim SF-328 advisory drew APA notice-of-intent challenge from Legal Challenge Layer in nearly every iteration (DCSA reacting to LCL in the data). | CONTESTED: DCSA vs Legal Challenge Layer APA confidence 45 Week 1-3: re-grounding in NISPOM/32 CFR authority; 'sham relabeling'/Appalachian Power theories filed. Civil-unrest variation (iteration 8/31) added legitimacy-crisis... | CONTESTED: DCSA re-grounded but multi-front confidence 50 Month 1-3: DCSA-CFIUS MOU attacked as substantive-rule evasion; carve-outs generated the standing subclass Legal Challenge needed (iteration 8). |
| 8 DoD Class Deviation / DFARS Enforcement Backbone | DoD Contracting and Mapping Mandate (interim guidance) confidence 50 First 72h: interim class deviation often stalled in OIRA/OGC; fell back to non-binding guidance (DoD reacting to DCSA/CFIUS advisories in the data). | DoD (contract-clause authority - durable) confidence 70 Week 1-3: contract-clause/award-leverage authority proved more litigation-resistant than rulemaking across iterations 3/27/29/30/50. | CONTESTED: DoD IFR vs Legal Challenge Layer confidence 55 Month 1-3: good-cause IFRs became fresh APA targets; BACKFIRE when preamble cited a live contested target (iteration 31); post-hoc comment read as concession (iteratio... |
| 9 Allied-Country Investors 'Clean Template' Fast-Track Lane | Allied-Country Investors (transparent benchmark) confidence 70 First 72h: voluntary full disclosure + sponsorship established clean contrast case in nearly all 50 iterations (Allied-Country reacting to CFIUS advisory in the data). | Allied-Country Investors (alliance shift toward detection) confidence 65 Week 1-3: pivoted from screening subject to de facto transparency partner (iterations 26/29/30); but simultaneously became a mimicry target. | CONTESTED: template vs mimicry / bloc fracture confidence 50 Month 1-3: Acquirer mimicked the clean profile (iterations 33/35); Allied bloc internal defection over binding disclosure ultimatums (iterations 12/29/34/43). |
| 10 Target Sub-Tier Supplier Cap-Table (defection battleground) | CONTESTED: Concealment vs Target self-audit confidence 55 First 72h: Target self-flagging traded goodwill for earlier scrutiny; internal owner-vs-management split recurrent (Target reacting to CFIUS/Congressional safe-harbor... | Target Sub-Tier Supplier (defecting to disclosure) confidence 60 Week 1-3: contradictory SF-328 vs Concealment's minimizing filing in same intake window = strongest detection driver (iteration 12). | Target Sub-Tier Supplier (cooperating exemplar / Allied capital) confidence 75 Month 1-3: full defection to transparency in ~45/50; board override of concealment faction; converted to regulatory model case. |